As of August 2024, 3 solana to cad value was CAD 495 (price of one SOL unit was CAD 165), and its price behavior was influenced by a host of factors including technical performance, market demand and regulatory pressures. After its upgrade in 2023, the Solana network processed 65,000 transactions per second (TPS) at a transaction cost of 0.001 CAD. Its performance was several times more efficient than Ethereum’s (30 TPS), driving on-chain DeFi TVL to increase from 800 million CAD after the FTX crash in 2022 to 22 billion CAD in 2024. Annual growth is 275%. If the ecosystem simply continues to expand (for example, the number of NFT trading reaches an average of 1.2 million transactions per day in 2024), 3 solana to cad can rise along with TVL expansion. The past records show that for every 1 billion CAD expansion in TVL, SOL price rises by 4.2%.
The regulatory risks are enormous. In 2023, Solana was listed by the SEC as a potential unregistered security. If the lawsuit materializes (40% chance), it could replicate the experience of a 50% decline in one week in 2022 (3 SOL decreased from 450 CAD to 225 CAD). But compliant transactions are allowed under Canada’s Crypto Asset Markets Act. Buying 3 solana for cad with the Wealthsimple platform charges as little as a 0.5% handling fee (492.5 CAD effective cost), and holdings by local investors of positions will increase 30% in 2024 (up to 120 million CAD). Hedge against uncertainty partly related to regulation.
Appraisal directly responds to changes in the pattern of market competition. Solana controls 15% of the smart contract platform market, behind Ethereum (62%) but in front of Avalanche (8%). If its 2024 Firedancer update increases the network stability to 99.9% from 98.5%, the verification nodes can be increased to as many as 3,500 from 2,000, reducing the possibility of centralization (currently, the top 10 nodes own 35% of the equity). For comparison, Avalanche’s C chain’s volume of trading increased by 45% in 2024. Unless Solana can maintain its technological advantage (e.g., confirmation time of 0.4 seconds versus 2 seconds for Avalanche), 3 solana to cad may decline by 5%-10% due to loss of market share.
Macroeconomics and exchange rate movements are exogenous variables. The interest rate of the Bank of Canada will be 5.0% in 2024. The Canadian dollar will remain stable against the US dollar at a rate of 1:0.73. If the Federal Reserve reduces interest rates and makes the US dollar weaker, 3 solana to cad may appreciate due to the rising demand for crypto assets as a safe haven. Statistics for 2023 have shown that the SOL/CAD exchange rate goes up by 0.8% for every 1% decline in the US dollar index. However, if Canada’s inflation rate is more than 4% (3.2% in June 2024), the probability of the central bank raising interest rates increases. The rise of the Canadian currency can maintain the local price of SOL quoted in US dollars at a low level. For instance, when the Canadian currency was appreciating by 5% in 2022, the multi-factor regression model of the SOL/CAD prices reflected a correlation of -0.4.
Staking rewards and on-chain activity are short-term driving forces. Solana’s staking APR rate is 6.8% per annum. If you risk 3 SOL (495 CAD), the annual reward is roughly 33.66 CAD, and you must deduct the validation node commission (approximately 8%). By late July 2024, there were more than 1.3 million active addresses on the network (12% month-to-month growth) and an average of 800 million CAD trading per day on the DEX. If the growth rate is sustained, 3 solana to cad can rise to 180 CAD due to increased network utility (with a potential return of 9%). Conversely, if another occurrence such as the 18-hour network outage in November 2022 were to occur again, prices would decline by 15% to 20% (3 SOL dropped to 396-420 CAD).
briefly, 3 solana to cad value swings are the result of technology, regulation, market and macro intertwinement. Investors might consider CoinGecko’s SOL/CAD volatility index (68%, higher than Bitcoin’s 45%), assume positions no greater than 10% of total assets, and set dynamic take-profit and stop-loss (e.g., ±20% limit). If the Solana network achieves the 2025 TVL target of 50 billion CAD at 127% growth per year, then 3 SOL may be equivalent to 720 CAD. It is, however, worth looking out for the historic pattern of a halve in net value by the black swan events.